After their win against Mozambique, Cape Verde already has two wins from two games and has thus already qualified for the round of 16 of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON). They do so as winners of Group B too with a game to spare.
However, all other teams in Group B still have a chance of qualifying for the knockout stage. Why is that? Four out of six third-placed teams can qualify for the round of 16. But what has to happen for the Black Stars to actually be there?
Scenario 1: Ghana wins against Mozambique, while Egypt loses against Cape Verde. Ghana would then finish second in their group and qualify for the round of 16. Should this happen, they would face the runners-up from Group F (i.e. Morocco, DR Congo, Zambia, and Tanzania).
Scenario 2: Ghana wins against Mozambique, while Egypt draws against Cape Verde. As in scenario 1, Ghana would be through as runners-up and would meet the runners-up from Group F.
Scenario 3: Ghana wins against Mozambique, while Egypt wins against Cape Verde. Ghana would finish third in the group with 4 points and would have a very good chance of qualifying for the round of 16.
Scenario 4: Ghana draws against Mozambique, while Egypt wins against Cape Verde. Ghana would finish third in the group with two points and have to hope that there are worse third-placed teams in two other groups.
Scenario 5: Ghana draws against Mozambique, while Egypt draws against Cape Verde. Ghana would finish third in the group with two points and must hope that there are worse third-placed teams in two other groups.
Scenario 6: Ghana draws against Mozambique, while Egypt loses to Cape Verde. Here it depends on the extent of Egypt’s loss. If it is only by one goal, both teams would be level on goal difference. In that case, whoever has scored more goals qualifies. If this is also equal, it is decided by who has fewer disciplinary points. If there is also a tie, a draw is made.
Scenario 7: Ghana loses. No matter what result Egypt achieves, the Black Stars have to pack their bags.
At the moment, Ghana will have to wait and see how many points the third-placed teams from the other groups have before the third and decisive group stage game. It is clear, however, that Ghana would be best served if they win (as highly as possible) against Mozambique on Monday.
By: Nicholas Horni, Pulse Ghana
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